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Archive for the ‘Interest Rate’ Category

UK – 3rd in the Global Millionaire Stakes (G025)

Posted by Greg Lance - Watkins (Greg_L-W) on 09/11/2008

UK – 3rd in the Global Millionaire Stakes (G025)

A study entitled “A Wealth of Opportunities in Turbulent Times” by management consultants the Boston Consultant Group, showed that in 2007 the number of millionaire households grew by 11.2% globally despite the ensuing recession.

The UK was listed as having the 3rd largest number of millionaires (668,000) compared with Japan 2nd (900,000) and the US 1st (4,884,000).The report also predicted that China (5th) would overtake Germany (4th) in 2008.

Patrios is minded that many of the millionaires in the UK have achieved their wealth via property development/ownership and will be intrigued to see the effect that declining property values will have on these figures next year, though we doubt that The President of Kazakhstan will be too concerned about his ‘secret £50m purchase’ of Toprak Mansion in the Bishops Avenue in Hampstead, North London as reported in the Sunday Times today.

From an Associate’s Blog

To try to put a value on Freedom is as futile as floccipaucinihilipilification and the metissage of our societies, as we rummage in the ashes of our dreams, the flotsam of our hopes and the jetsam of our lives.

Regards,
Greg L-W.
01291 – 62 65 62

I SUGGEST – since there is clearly no political party of repute, advocating or campaigning for withdrawal of these United Kingdoms from the EU and restoration of our independent sovereign, democracy, with Justice & the right to self determination in a free country:

Write Upon Your Ballot Paper:

LEAVE THE EU

Posted in $, £, Bank, Bank of England, British Pound, EUros, Finance, IMF, Interest Rate, Pound, USDollar | Leave a Comment »

Which Direction for the Pound (G024)

Posted by Greg Lance - Watkins (Greg_L-W) on 08/11/2008

Which Direction for the Pound (G024)

Despite last week’s interest rate cut of 1.5% the £ rose slightly against the dollar from $1.57 – $1.58 and similarly against the Euro from 1.23 euros to 1.24 euros. One school of thought is that the reduction may stimulate the economy thereby supporting the pound against other currencies.

Patrios believes however, this is only a temporary rise with a significant fall due shortly. The UK economy (according to the IMF last Thursday) is expected to contract by 1.3% in 2009 suffering the worst recession within the Eurozone.

This prediction is holding back any progress sterling may make and will prove a major force in seeing a reduction of the £ to around $1.40 before Christmas. Also, with the Bank of England likely to reduce interest rates again by January the pound is unlikely to stabilize until at least the middle of next year.

From an Associate’s Blog

To try to put a value on Freedom is as futile as floccipaucinihilipilification and the metissage of our societies, as we rummage in the ashes of our dreams, the flotsam of our hopes and the jetsam of our lives.

Regards,
Greg L-W.
01291 – 62 65 62

I SUGGEST – since there is clearly no political party of repute, advocating or campaigning for withdrawal of these United Kingdoms from the EU and restoration of our independent sovereign, democracy, with Justice & the right to self determination in a free country:

Write Upon Your Ballot Paper:

LEAVE THE EU

Posted in $, £, Bank, Bank of England, British Pound, EUros, Finance, IMF, Interest Rate, Pound, USDollar | Leave a Comment »

Expect a Bank of England Surprise Move next week (G023)

Posted by Greg Lance - Watkins (Greg_L-W) on 02/11/2008

Expect a Bank of England Surprise Move next week (G023)

Last month we predicted that the odds were in favour of an interest rate cut, which actually occurred. However, Patrios believes the MPC have got it wrong – the reduction was totally insufficient and another is required immediately and it needs to be far more substantial.

The price per barrel of oil has halved, unemployment is rising significantly and the banks are not passing on the interest rate reduction, as the LIBOR rate has remained stubbornly high. Whilst future inflation (as a result of an increase in the money supply and public expenditure) is of some concern, the reality of a significant recession/depression weighs far more on the minds of politicians and financiers.

It is our belief that the Bank of England will make a dramatic move next week to correct their error of last month. We would not be surprised to see a rate reduction of at least 1% and possibly (though it would be brave) as much as 1.5%.

However, this will have only limited effect if the LIBOR rate fails to move at a similar rate (there have been some indications in the past 2 weeks of LIBOR rates slowly reducing though banks are still likely to restrict reductions in order to strengthen their own balance sheets). An additional reduction of 0.5% is also possible in December or more likely January 2009.

From an Associate’s Blog

To try to put a value on Freedom is as futile as floccipaucinihilipilification and the metissage of our societies, as we rummage in the ashes of our dreams, the flotsam of our hopes and the jetsam of our lives.

Regards,
Greg L-W.
01291 – 62 65 62

I SUGGEST – since there is clearly no political party of repute, advocating or campaigning for withdrawal of these United Kingdoms from the EU and restoration of our independent sovereign, democracy, with Justice & the right to self determination in a free country:

Write Upon Your Ballot Paper:

LEAVE THE EU

Posted in $, £, Bank, Bank of England, British Pound, EUros, Finance, IMF, Interest Rate, Pound, USDollar | Leave a Comment »

63,000 Years of Brown Debt !!! #A04* (G025)

Posted by Greg Lance - Watkins (Greg_L-W) on 13/10/2008

63,000 Years of Brown Debt !!! #A04* (G025)

The financial crisis could be the euro’s death knell … and even end the shambolic EU

Hi,

Just a bit of a roundup this morning before you dash out and jump from the window, along with thousands of contrite Bankers & honest accountants, who as professional gamblers have clearly backed not just the wrong colour but isolated themselves in playing against the odds in a huge and unsecured gamble on a number, along with the Government that ‘Likes to say YES’ when handing out our money and increasing our taxes.

Consider the details of Britain’s debt which was somewhere in excess of £1.3 Trillion under the careful and prudent care of Gordon Brown Prudent as ever it had ONLY risen by £1.3Trillion during his tour of duty at a time when there were approximately 100 new stealth taxes to generate income to ensure financial prudence and a move away from ‘boom and bust’ economics he so frequently warned us of.

Then on top of the £1.3Trillion of debt he incurred for us he has had a great giveaway – in fact claimed to be setting the world an example of giving away the money stolen from the tax payers – normally tax is for the good of the society but under Gordon Brown tax has been to buy 3 elections for his old mate Tony!

Anyway to add to the £1.3Trillion we have £100bn.+ handed over to his banking mates in Northern Rock based in Newcastle on which Labour is dependent (one wonders if they were based in Surrey and called The Green Belt Bank whether they would have been bailed out with OUR money!), add to that his giveaway of £500bn. Of OUR money again to bail out his mates the bankers – I wonder what he did with the proceedes of the 600tonnes of OUR gold he sold!

So ignore the gold that is £1.3Trillion+£100bn.+500bn. Basing the figures on a low level of interest that means that you and I owe together with the rest of the population of Britain – except the Somalis, French, Germans, Sudanese, Nigerian, Pakistanis, Indians, Bangladeshis, South Africans, Sri Lankans, Spanish, Ghanaians, Zionists and their ilk will probably leg it a bit quick when they find they owe a lot of money!

Anyway that works out that Labour have Conservatively ie without a bleat from the opposition, have incurred us in £1.9Trillion so to allow for the odd bit I forgot let us call that £2Trillion!!!


A trillion is a one followed by twelve zeros—1,000,000,000,000.

In one year (taking account of leap year) there are 31,600,000 seconds.

1 trillion divided by 31, 600,000 seconds is 31,546 years.

It will take 31,546 years to count the first trillion dollars.

WELL DONE Mr. Brown:with such Prudence in 11 years since you took over managing Britain’s finances you have squandered so much money it will take over 63,000 years to count it!

OK so let’s put it another way since we all know roughly how long ONE Second is and most of us know how long it takes us to earn ourselves (after tax £10,000) – Well wee Prudence has incurred debt since he took over control of our finances in 1997 at the rate of £9,111.00 per SECOND.

Now the truelly staggering thing about all this is that I am NOT an economist, I did NOT get one of the youngest Doctorates from Edinburgh NOR one of the highest marks EVERGordon Brown DID.

Perhaps we should shut Edinburgh University Economics Faculty if this is the product!

I state I was not nor am I an economist but I was writing polemics about the inevitability of a credit collapse and the probability of 200,000,000 deaths across EUrope due to EU policy, EU over regulation and utter incompetence in the EU and its basic principles.

Perhaps Economics is the absolute Science of Being Fiscally Wise AFTER the event.Economists are the specialists who clear up the mess economists make!

There is possibly only one good thing about being Japanese and that is that Bushido dictates that if you are a leader and you screw up this badly you have the honour to commit ‘Sepuko’ – we would at least be rid of Gordon Brown and his immediate supporters & followers and as promised Peter Mandelson is ‘right behind him’.

To try to put a value on Freedom is as futile as floccipaucinihilipilification and the metissage of our societies, as we rummage in the ashes of our dreams, the flotsam of our hopes and the jetsam of our lives.

Regards,

Greg L-W.

01291 – 62 65 62

MAY I SUGGEST – since there is no political party of repute advocating or campaigning for withdrawal of these United Kingdoms from the EU and restoration of our independent sovereign democracy, with Justice & the right to self determination in a free country:

Write Upon Your Ballot Paper:

LEAVE THE EU

Posted in $, £, Bank, Bank of England, British Pound, EUros, Finance, IMF, Interest Rate, Pound, USDollar | Leave a Comment »

Which Direction for the US Dollar? (G022)

Posted by Greg Lance - Watkins (Greg_L-W) on 05/10/2008

Which Direction for the US Dollar? (G022)

Many analysts, politicians and investors are quite rightly asking which direction is the USA Dollar heading and is it sustainable? Since the second half of last year, the direction is unequivocally up.

In mid-July the dollar stood at a little over $1.60 against the Euro, but with the exception of one or two small set backs has risen since to the current level of $1.38

Last years weakness in the USA dollar may be attributed to a number of factors:
the widespread belief that the USA economy would move headlong into recession as a result of the sub prime mortgage crisis; the financial system would be hit particularly harder than those of other countries because of this crisis; and the Federal Reserve’s rather aggressive monetary policy response may result in systemic deterioration of the currency.

Despite these fears, the underlying USA economy has proven relatively robust compared to its overseas counterparts. In the second quarter, the economies of both Japan and the Euro zone contracted, with the UK remaining stagnant. US growth in the same period saw a rise of 3.3%.

Banks throughout both Europe and the Globe have seen a number of banking failures; nationalisations and mergers occur. The latest movements in the UK being the nationalisation of Northern Rock, the acquiring of Bradford and Bingley assets by Santander and the nearly completed acquisition of HBOS by Lloyds TSB.

The dollar has also been supported by the Federal Reserve Bank acting in such a way to prevent systemic risk – it allowed both Lehman Brothers to go ‘bust’ and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to be saved at the same time . Thereby providing confidence that both free market principles plus Central Bank intervention was, and is, possible.Naturally, there is the fear that the dollar’s relative strength may affect the US export competitiveness and weaker demand from Europe and Japan will take its toll.

However, there is some relief from emerging market economies which currently account for over half of US exports.

Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon is quoted as saying that the dollar is benefitting not only from weakening growth expectations at home, but also “While the United States has won the battle of the growth expectations for now, opinions in the market are deeply divided over the way in which Central Banks will respond to the continued rise in inflationary pressures”.
“If the US ends up winning the battle of the interest rate differentials, with the Federal Reserve lifting rates sooner than expected, the greenback has far more upside potential than many expect”.

Whilst third quarter growth in the US is likely to drop significantly, it must be borne in mind that a weaker economy is already choking back import demand and this trade deficit impact may prove supportive of the dollar. However, in order to sustain dollar strength the US needs to consume less and emerging markets such as China need to consume more – both of which are occurring.

In addition, the result of earlier dollar weakness has seen the growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the US. So a relatively cheaper dollar, gains in productivity and lower labour costs have enabled FDI in the US to rise by nearly two thirds last year to $277 billion. However, whilst FDI inflows would support the dollar, the latest budget forecasts from the US Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) which projects a record high deficit of $482 billion in fiscal 2009 may have an opposing effect.

Higher US interest rates may be required to maintain foreign inflows but if both budget and current account deficits surge and US interest rates remain at current level (or fall further) this would have a profound negative impact for the dollar.

Bearing in mind the current fear of a recession occurring it would be difficult to see the Federal Reserve even contemplating a rise in interest rates for some time yet.

The question as to whether the dollar’s rise is sustainable is difficult to predict at this stage. Too many negative variables may prove destabilising, but the Fed’s action preventing systemic risk as the result of the sub prime market; increasing foreign investment into the US and a relatively robust economy compared with Europe and Japan may enable a slow but gradual strengthening of the dollar to continue.

From an Associate’s Blog

To try to put a value on Freedom is as futile as floccipaucinihilipilification and the metissage of our societies, as we rummage in the ashes of our dreams, the flotsam of our hopes and the jetsam of our lives.

Regards,
Greg L-W.
01291 – 62 65 62

I SUGGEST – since there is clearly no political party of repute, advocating or campaigning for withdrawal of these United Kingdoms from the EU and restoration of our independent sovereign, democracy, with Justice & the right to self determination in a free country:

Write Upon Your Ballot Paper:

LEAVE THE EU

Posted in $, £, Bank, Bank of England, British Pound, EUros, Finance, IMF, Interest Rate, Pound, USDollar | Leave a Comment »

 
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